ASU Center for Agriculture and National Security Addresses Foreign Threats to U.S. Food Systems
Why Agriculture Security is a Critical National Security Issue
For decades, national security discussions in the USA have predominantly centered on traditional military threats, cyber warfare, and the security of critical minerals and microchips. However, a vital component of national resilience has largely flown under the radar: agriculture security. The realization that a disrupted food supply chain poses an existential threat to a nation’s stability is rapidly gaining traction among defense experts and policymakers.
The catalyst for this shift in perspective often comes not from theoretical war games, but from lived experiences on the ground. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the ensuing geopolitical fallout demonstrated exactly how fragile agricultural inputs can be. A sudden fertilizer shortage and severe price spikes sent shockwaves through the American farming community. For example, farmers in Arizona experienced planting delays that ultimately resulted in yield reductions of up to 30%. If those same supply chain disruptions had occurred just a few weeks later—during the peak planting season in the Midwest—the resulting drop in global food exports would have triggered a catastrophic international food security crisis.
This scenario highlights a stark reality: foreign adversaries do not need to deploy troops on U.S. soil to inflict massive damage. By manipulating supply chains, restricting access to critical agricultural chemicals, or weaponizing trade dependencies, hostile nations can cripple the American agricultural industry from thousands of miles away. Recognizing this vulnerability is the first step in building a comprehensive defense strategy.
Inside the Center for Agriculture and National Security at Arizona State University
To address these emerging threats, Arizona State University has established the Center for Agriculture and National Security. Approved by the Arizona Board of Regents, this specialized center operates under ASU’s Future Security Initiative. The center is dedicated to a singular, urgent mission: securing U.S. food systems and strengthening national resilience against foreign interference.
Leading this initiative is Alicia Ellis, a Professor of Practice who brings a formidable background in global security to the agricultural sector. Ellis is the director of the Master of Arts in global security program at ASU and a former U.S. Air Force officer. Having served twice as an air battle manager in support of operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom, and later as a Presidential Management Fellow at the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, Ellis possesses a deep understanding of geopolitical strategy. Her transition from studying traditional warfare to analyzing agricultural vulnerabilities represents a crucial evolution in how the USA approaches national defense.
The center’s primary objective is to bridge the gap between agricultural production and national security strategy. Historically, these two domains have operated in silos. Farmers focus on yields and agronomy, while defense analysts focus on state actors and military capabilities. The Center for Agriculture and National Security exists to integrate these fields, ensuring that agricultural vulnerabilities are mapped, understood, and incorporated into broader national security frameworks.
Identifying Vulnerabilities in the U.S. Agriculture Sector
One of the center’s first major contributions to the field of agriculture security was a collaborative tabletop exercise conducted alongside the U.S. government. Rather than simulating a single, catastrophic event—such as a physical attack on a specific facility—the exercise explored a far more likely and insidious threat: the gradual compounding of “gray zone” tactics by a foreign adversary, specifically China.
Supply Chain Manipulation
The modern agricultural sector relies on a highly optimized, just-in-time supply chain. The exercise evaluated how an adversary could systematically cut off or delay critical parts of this chain. By targeting shipping routes, port infrastructure, or manufacturing hubs overseas, a foreign power could effectively starve U.S. farms of the necessary equipment and inputs required for a successful growing season.
Chemical Export Bans
Perhaps the most immediate vulnerability lies in crop protection. The tabletop exercise examined the impact of a foreign government announcing an export ban on specific chemicals that serve as primary active ingredients in herbicides and pesticides. Because these chemicals are often manufactured internationally, replacing them requires years of reformulation, regulatory approval, and domestic scaling. A sudden ban would leave U.S. crops defenseless against blights and pests almost immediately.
Intellectual Property Theft and Legal Constraints
Beyond physical inputs, the exercise highlighted how adversaries use legal mechanisms and intellectual property theft to disrupt the sector. This includes stealing proprietary seed genetics or utilizing international legal frameworks to pit American farmers against domestic agribusinesses, creating internal friction that weakens the industry from within.
The findings from this exercise were significant enough to warrant publication in PRISM, a prestigious journal of national and international security affairs for the U.S. Department of Defense. The research demonstrated that agriculture security requires constant vigilance against a web of interconnected, low-level strategies rather than a single defined threat.
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The Intersection of Supply Chains, Cybersecurity, and Food Production
Russ Howard, a professor of practice in ASU’s School of Politics and Global Studies and the founding director of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, notes that food systems have long been vulnerable precisely because there has never been an “agricultural 9/11.” Without a singular, defining catastrophe to serve as a wake-up call, both the public and policymakers have taken the abundance of the U.S. food supply for granted. Howard points out that prior to the establishment of this center, there was virtually no recognized center of gravity for agriculture security research in the defense community.
However, the threats are multifaceted. Agriculture security is not just about fertilizer and seeds; it is deeply intertwined with modern technology. Today’s farms are highly automated, relying on GPS-guided tractors, drone surveillance, IoT soil sensors, and data analytics. This makes the agricultural sector a prime target for cyberattacks. A coordinated cyberattack could disable planting or harvesting equipment, corrupt yield data, or manipulate automated irrigation systems. Protecting the food supply inherently requires robust cybersecurity measures and systems engineering expertise.
Arizona State University is uniquely positioned to tackle these overlapping disciplines. The Center for Agriculture and National Security sits at the intersection of agronomy, supply chain logistics, systems engineering, cybersecurity, economics, and traditional national security. Very few institutions possess this breadth of expertise under a single organizational roof, making ASU an ideal hub for this critical research.
Strategic Partnerships and Global Security Implications
While the center’s primary focus is on protecting the USA, it recognizes that agriculture security is a global issue. The center has already established a partnership with the Regenerative Grazing Open Air Lab, an initiative based at the Naval Postgraduate School in California. This collaboration aims to connect regenerative land management practices—such as rotational grazing to rebuild topsoil and sequester carbon—with national security outcomes. By improving soil health and reducing reliance on synthetic international fertilizers, the USA can insulate its food systems from geopolitical shocks.
Furthermore, the center is expanding its analytical scope beyond domestic borders. A second tabletop exercise, sponsored by a private company, is investigating how the rapid depletion of aquifers in California’s Central Valley will impact major agribusinesses and national food availability. Looking further abroad, the center is developing large-scale exercises focusing on global hotspots in Africa and the Middle East. By analyzing regions where severe water shortages are likely to disrupt agricultural production, the center aims to anticipate how resulting conflicts, mass migrations, and economic collapses will ultimately impact U.S. national security interests.
The international community is already taking notice. Representatives from Japan have expressed interest in participating in the center’s exercises, recognizing that allied nations share similar vulnerabilities in their food systems.
Educational Pathways for Aspiring Security Professionals
Securing the nation’s food supply requires a new generation of professionals who possess a hybrid skill set. To meet this demand, the Center for Agriculture and National Security is integrating its research directly into the academic curriculum at Arizona State University.
Undergraduate and graduate students now have the opportunity to take specialized courses that explore the underlying links between conflict, security, and agricultural production. These classes teach students to analyze food systems through a strategic lens, evaluating how climate change, water scarcity, and foreign policy intersect to create security risks.
For professionals and students seeking advanced education, ASU offers an online Master of Arts in global security program. This flexible, rigorous program allows students to deepen their understanding of transnational threats, intelligence analysis, and strategic planning—all of which are directly applicable to the emerging field of agriculture security. By training future leaders who understand both the agricultural landscape and the geopolitical environment, ASU is ensuring that the workforce is prepared to implement the strategies developed by the center.
Submit your application today to join the next generation of national security leaders.
Strengthening National Resilience Through Proactive Defense
The establishment of the Center for Agriculture and National Security represents a paradigm shift in how the United States defines and defends its critical infrastructure. For too long, the security of the food supply has been an afterthought in national defense planning. As geopolitical tensions rise and the impacts of climate change place additional strain on global resources, leaving the agricultural sector vulnerable is a risk the USA can no longer afford to take.
By proactively identifying vulnerabilities, conducting rigorous tabletop exercises, and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, Arizona State University is fulfilling its mission as a national service university. The work being done at the center moves the conversation from reactive crisis management to proactive, strategic defense. Ensuring that American farmers can continue to feed the nation—and the world—without fear of foreign manipulation is not just an agricultural imperative; it is a fundamental requirement for the continued sovereignty and stability of the United States.
