Nevada Economic Outlook 2025: CBER Forecast Highlights Slow Growth but No Recession
Understanding the Current Economic Landscape in Nevada
The 2025 Economic Outlook released by the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) marks a significant milestone – the 50th anniversary of a research hub whose mission is to translate data into actionable insights for leaders across Nevada. The forecast paints a picture of a state that will see its growth rate decelerate, yet remain resilient enough to avoid a recession in the near term. For businesses, policymakers, and community stakeholders, grasping the nuances of this report is essential to plan for the upcoming fiscal years.
Key Takeaways from the CBER Forecast
CBER predicts a modest slowdown in Nevada’s economic expansion. While the national economy is projected to grow at a modest 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, the state’s growth outlook is slightly lower due to dependence on tourism, gaming revenue, and the broader business cycle. Nevertheless, two important points emerge:
- Inflation remains at a manageable level of roughly 3% – a figure that suggests the Federal Reserve is unlikely to push rates high enough to trigger a recession.
- Employment growth is expected to stay positive, albeit at a weaker pace. Key sectors that will continue to generate jobs include healthcare, transportation, real estate, and professional, scientific, and technology services.
Visitor Volume and Gaming Revenue Trends
Visitor counts are key drivers of Nevada’s economy. The forecast projects a slight dip of 0.4% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, keeping annual visitors near the 50‑51 million mark. Gross gaming revenue – the lifeblood of the state’s hospitality sector – was one of the primary variables used to model these outcomes. The decline reflects broader shifts in consumer behavior, fluctuating travel restrictions, and the changing mix of leisure demand.
Southern Nevada: A Nuanced Portrait
While the state as a whole is expected to experience soft growth, Southern Nevada – home to the Las Vegas Strip – faces a more pronounced contraction. CBER anticipates a mild contraction in 2025, with a 2.4% increase in visitor volume for 2026 and a slight 0.2% drop in 2027. Employment in the region will grow, but gains will be modest: 0.7% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 0.1% in 2027.
What Drives the Shift?
Historically, Southern Nevada’s economy hinged on leisure and hospitality. The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in a sector that relies heavily on face‑to‑face interaction. As consumer confidence returns, the region benefits from marquee events such as the Super Bowl and F1 Grand Prix, which inject temporary surges. However, the long‑term outlook suggests a shift toward diversification, with increased investment noted in manufacturing, infrastructure, IT, healthcare, and supply chains.
Housing and Workforce Connectivity
Housing affordability remains one of the most pressing challenges for Nevada residents. The forecast indicates a modest cooling of overall home prices, particularly for existing homes, while new homes see a slower price adjustment. Housing permits are expected to see a 3% decline in 2025 before a 4.8% rebound in 2026. The divergence between price trends and household income growth leads to a widening gap, creating two distinct market segments: high‑income earners and working families.
Implications for Employers and Talent Mobility
As Shawn McCoy, director of the UNLV Lied Center for Real Estate, points out, housing affordability directly affects workforce stability. Talent retention hinges on the ability of workers to live within a commutable distance to their jobs. Communities that invest in affordable housing are better positioned to attract and retain skilled professionals across tech, healthcare, and logistics sectors.
National Patterns and Their Ripple Effects
On a macro level, the United States is expected to see moderate growth, tempered by inflation pressures and consumer uncertainty. The gradual decline in interest rates, coupled with a federal fiscal package, could provide a countervailing stimulus to the slowed pace of spending. The Federal Reserve’s stance – focusing on ‘soft landing’ rather than a hard downturn – offers a window of stability that Nevada can leverage.
Strategic Opportunities for Nevada Businesses
With growth expected to slow, businesses need to focus on resilience:
- Invest in workforce development to support emerging sectors like healthcare, IT, and logistics.
- Explore diversification beyond tourism, perhaps by building partnerships with manufacturing or renewable energy firms.
- Leverage data-driven decisions using CBER’s real‑time research tools to adjust pricing, workforce allocation, and capital investment.
Actionable Recommendations for Stakeholders
Based on the forecast, a set of concrete actions emerges for various stakeholder groups:
- Business Leaders: Use the CBER research to fine‑tune your budgeting process. If your company relies on gaming revenue, consider hedging strategies or diversifying product lines into digital experiences.
- Policy Makers: Target investment in affordable housing and infrastructure projects that support the transportation and logistics sectors.
- Community Organizations: Partner with universities to develop workforce training pipelines, especially in high‑growth fields such as health services and tech.
Staying Informed and Engaged
CBER continually updates its research and offers a wealth of publicly available reports. Stakeholders are encouraged to access these resources to monitor economic trends in real time. By staying proactive, you can position yourself to take advantage of the modest growth that still lies ahead.
For a deeper dive into the specifics of the 2025 Outlook, consider requesting the full report or exploring related analyses on the CBER website.
Moving Forward: Bottom Line
The 2025 Economic Outlook underscores that while Nevada’s economic engine may slow, it remains robust enough to sidestep a recession. The focus should shift from forecasting to preparation: diversify revenue streams, invest in workforce development, and prioritize affordable housing to ensure the state’s continued prosperity.
Key Facts to Remember
- Overall growth moderates, but employment remains positive.
- Visitor volume and gaming revenue are key predictors of the state’s health.
- Housing affordability is critical for retaining talent.
- Southern Nevada must diversify beyond leisure to sustain long‑term growth.
- National trends suggest a ‘soft landing’ rather than a harsh downturn.
By aligning strategic initiatives with these trends, Nevada can navigate the modest slowdown and secure a healthy outlook for businesses, workers, and communities alike.
Take the next step: Visit CBER to access the full 2025 Outlook report and explore how data-driven planning can safeguard you against economic uncertainty.
